Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events
Authors
Bevacqua, Emanuele
De Michele, Carlo

Manning, Colin

Couasnon, Anaïs

Ribeiro, Andreia F. S.

Ramos, Alexandre M.

Vignotto, Edoardo
Bastos, Ana

Blesić, Suzana

Durante, Fabrizio

Hillier, John

Oliveira, Sérgio C.

Pinto, Joaquim G.

Ragno, Elisa

Rivoire, Pauline

Saunders, Kate

van der Wiel, Karin

Wu, Wenyan

Zhang, Tianyi
Zscheischler, Jakob

Article (Published version)
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Show full item recordAbstract
Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright spri...ngs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.
Plain Language Summary: Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high-impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate-related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still limited. In practice, studying compound events is a challenging task, which often requires interaction between experts across multiple disciplines. Recently, compound events were divided into four types to aid the framing of research on this topic, but guidelines on how to study these four types are missing. Here, we take a pragmatic approach and—focusing on case studies of different compound event types—illustrate how to address specific research questions that could be of interest to users.... The results allow identifying recommendations for compound event analyses. Furthermore, through the case studies, we highlight the relevance that compounding effects have for the occurrence of landslides, flooding, vegetation impacts, and crop failures. The guidelines emerged from this work will assist the development of compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.
Keywords:
climate change / compound events / environmental risk / guidelines / multidisciplinary / typologySource:
Earth's Future, 2021, 9, 11, e2021EF002340-Publisher:
- Wiley
Funding / projects:
- European COST Action DAMOCLES CA17109
- Horizon 2020 Grant Agreement No 101003469 and Grant Agreement No 707404
- Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) - Ambizione Grant 179876
- Helmholtz Initiative and Networking Fund (Young Investigator Group COMPOUNDX) VH-NG-1537
- Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) - Grant No. 016.161.324
- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, project WEx-Atlantic- PTDC/CTA-MET/29233/2017 and project Scientific Employment Srtimulus - CEECIND/00027/2017
- Italian Ministry of University and Research (Ministero dell'Universita e della Ricerca) - PRIN2017 RELAID project
- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017
- DOCILE project (NERC grant: NE/P002099/1)
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Institution/Community
Institut za medicinska istraživanjaTY - JOUR AU - Bevacqua, Emanuele AU - De Michele, Carlo AU - Manning, Colin AU - Couasnon, Anaïs AU - Ribeiro, Andreia F. S. AU - Ramos, Alexandre M. AU - Vignotto, Edoardo AU - Bastos, Ana AU - Blesić, Suzana AU - Durante, Fabrizio AU - Hillier, John AU - Oliveira, Sérgio C. AU - Pinto, Joaquim G. AU - Ragno, Elisa AU - Rivoire, Pauline AU - Saunders, Kate AU - van der Wiel, Karin AU - Wu, Wenyan AU - Zhang, Tianyi AU - Zscheischler, Jakob PY - 2021 UR - http://rimi.imi.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1181 AB - Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors. AB - Plain Language Summary: Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high-impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate-related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still limited. In practice, studying compound events is a challenging task, which often requires interaction between experts across multiple disciplines. Recently, compound events were divided into four types to aid the framing of research on this topic, but guidelines on how to study these four types are missing. Here, we take a pragmatic approach and—focusing on case studies of different compound event types—illustrate how to address specific research questions that could be of interest to users. The results allow identifying recommendations for compound event analyses. Furthermore, through the case studies, we highlight the relevance that compounding effects have for the occurrence of landslides, flooding, vegetation impacts, and crop failures. The guidelines emerged from this work will assist the development of compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors. PB - Wiley T2 - Earth's Future T1 - Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events IS - 11 SP - e2021EF002340 VL - 9 DO - 10.1029/2021EF002340 ER -
@article{ author = "Bevacqua, Emanuele and De Michele, Carlo and Manning, Colin and Couasnon, Anaïs and Ribeiro, Andreia F. S. and Ramos, Alexandre M. and Vignotto, Edoardo and Bastos, Ana and Blesić, Suzana and Durante, Fabrizio and Hillier, John and Oliveira, Sérgio C. and Pinto, Joaquim G. and Ragno, Elisa and Rivoire, Pauline and Saunders, Kate and van der Wiel, Karin and Wu, Wenyan and Zhang, Tianyi and Zscheischler, Jakob", year = "2021", abstract = "Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors., Plain Language Summary: Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high-impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate-related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still limited. In practice, studying compound events is a challenging task, which often requires interaction between experts across multiple disciplines. Recently, compound events were divided into four types to aid the framing of research on this topic, but guidelines on how to study these four types are missing. Here, we take a pragmatic approach and—focusing on case studies of different compound event types—illustrate how to address specific research questions that could be of interest to users. The results allow identifying recommendations for compound event analyses. Furthermore, through the case studies, we highlight the relevance that compounding effects have for the occurrence of landslides, flooding, vegetation impacts, and crop failures. The guidelines emerged from this work will assist the development of compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.", publisher = "Wiley", journal = "Earth's Future", title = "Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events", number = "11", pages = "e2021EF002340", volume = "9", doi = "10.1029/2021EF002340" }
Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T.,& Zscheischler, J.. (2021). Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events. in Earth's Future Wiley., 9(11), e2021EF002340. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002340
Bevacqua E, De Michele C, Manning C, Couasnon A, Ribeiro AFS, Ramos AM, Vignotto E, Bastos A, Blesić S, Durante F, Hillier J, Oliveira SC, Pinto JG, Ragno E, Rivoire P, Saunders K, van der Wiel K, Wu W, Zhang T, Zscheischler J. Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events. in Earth's Future. 2021;9(11):e2021EF002340. doi:10.1029/2021EF002340 .
Bevacqua, Emanuele, De Michele, Carlo, Manning, Colin, Couasnon, Anaïs, Ribeiro, Andreia F. S., Ramos, Alexandre M., Vignotto, Edoardo, Bastos, Ana, Blesić, Suzana, Durante, Fabrizio, Hillier, John, Oliveira, Sérgio C., Pinto, Joaquim G., Ragno, Elisa, Rivoire, Pauline, Saunders, Kate, van der Wiel, Karin, Wu, Wenyan, Zhang, Tianyi, Zscheischler, Jakob, "Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events" in Earth's Future, 9, no. 11 (2021):e2021EF002340, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002340 . .